Person:

McElroy, Michael

A three-dimensional chemical tracer model for the troposphere is used to simulate the global distribution of 85Kr, a long-lived radioisotope released at northern mid-latitudes by nuclear industry. Simulated distributions for the period 1980–1983 are in excellent agreement with data from six latitudinal profiles measured over the Atlantic. High concentrations of 85Kr are predicted over the Arctic in winter, advected from European sources, and somewhat smaller enhancements arising from the same sources are predicted over the tropical Atlantic in summer. Latitudinal gradients are steepest in the northern tropics, with distinctly different seasonal variations over the Pacific, as compared to the Atlantic. The global inventory of 85Kr is reconstructed for the period 1980–1983 by combining the concentrations measured over the Atlantic with the global distributions predicted by the model. The magnitude of the Soviet source is derived. The interhemispheric exchange time is calculated as 1.1 years, with little seasonal dependence.

This paper considers options for a future Indian power economy in which renewables, wind and solar, could meet 80% of anticipated 2040 power demand supplanting the country’s current reliance on coal. Using a cost optimization model, here we show that renewables could provide a source of power cheaper or at least competitive with what could be supplied using fossil-based alternatives. The ancillary advantage would be a significant reduction in India’s future power sector related emissions of CO2. Using a model in which prices for wind turbines and solar PV systems are assumed to continue their current decreasing trend, we conclude that an investment in renewables at a level consistent with meeting 80% of projected 2040 power demand could result in a reduction of 85% in emissions of CO2 relative to what might be expected if the power sector were to continue its current coal dominated trajectory.

Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1–7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2.

A series of aggressive measures was launched by the Chinese government to reduce pollutant emissions from Beijing and surrounding areas during the Olympic Games. Observations at Miyun, a rural site 100 km downwind of the Beijing urban center, show significant decreases in concentrations of O3, CO, NOy, and SO2 during August 2008, relative to August 2006–2007. The mean daytime mixing ratio of O3 was lower by about 15 ppbv, reduced to 50 ppbv, in August 2008. The relative reductions in daytime SO2, CO, and NOy were 61%, 25%, and 21%, respectively. Changes in SO2 and in species correlations from 2007 to 2008 indicate that emissions of SO2, CO, and NOx were reduced at least by 60%, 32%, and 36%, respectively, during the Olympics. Analysis of meteorological conditions and interpretation of observations using a chemical transport model suggest that although the day-to-day variability in ozone is driven mostly by meteorology, the reduction in emissions of ozone precursors associated with the Olympic Games had a significant contribution to the observed decrease in O3 during August 2008, accounting for 80% of the O3 reduction for the month as a whole and 45% during the Olympics Period (8–24 August). The model predicts that emission restrictions such as those implemented during the Olympics can affect O3 far beyond the Beijing urban area, resulting in reductions in boundary layer O3 of 2–10 ppbv over a large region of the North China Plain and Northeastern China.

An updated version of the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model is developed allowing for higher horizontal (0.5°×0.667°) and vertical resolution as compared to global models. CO transport over a heavily polluted region, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city cluster in China, and the pattern of outflow from East China in summertime are investigated. Comparison of the nested-grid with global models indicates that the fine-resolution nested-grid model is capable of resolving individual cities with high associated emission intensities. The nested-grid model indicates the presence of a high CO column density over the Sichuan Basin in summer, attributable to the low-level stationary vortex associated with the Basin's topographical features. The nested-grid model provides good agreement also with measurements from a suburban monitoring site in Beijing during summer 2005. Tagged CO simulation results suggest that regional emissions make significant contributions to elevated CO levels over Beijing on polluted days and that the southeastward moving cyclones bringing northwest winds to Beijing are the key meteorological mechanisms responsible for dispersion of pollution over Beijing in summer. Overall CO fluxes to the NW Pacific from Asia are found to decrease by a factor of 3–4 from spring to summer. Much of the seasonal change is driven by decreasing fluxes from India and Southeast Asia in summer, while fluxes from East China are only 30% lower in summer than in spring. Compared to spring, summertime outflow from Chinese source regions is strongest at higher latitudes (north of 35° N). The deeper convection in summer transporting CO to higher altitudes where export is more efficient is largely responsible for enhanced export in summer.

A spatial financial model using wind data derived from assimilated meteorological condition was developed to investigate the profitability and competitiveness of onshore wind power in the contiguous U.S. It considers not only the resulting estimated capacity factors for hypothetical wind farms but also the geographically differentiated costs of local grid connection. The levelized cost of wind-generated electricity for the contiguous U.S. is evaluated assuming subsidy levels from the Production Tax Credit (PTC) varying from 0 to 4 b/kWh under three cost scenarios: a reference case, a high cost case, and a low cost case. The analysis indicates that in the reference scenario, current PTC subsidies of 2.1 b/kWh are at a critical level in determining the competitiveness of wind-generated electricity compared to conventional power generation in local power market. Results from this study suggest that the potential for profitable wind power with the current PTC subsidy amounts to more than seven times existing demand for electricity in the entire U.S. Understanding the challenges involved in scaling up wind energy requires further study of the external costs associated with improvement of the backbone transmission network and integration into the power grid of the variable electricity generated from wind.

The atmosphere is an example of a non-equilibrium system. This study explores the relationship among temperature, energy and entropy of the atmosphere, introducing two variables that serve to quantify the thermodynamic disequilibrium of the atmosphere. The maximum work, W max, that the atmosphere can perform is defined as the work developed through a thermally reversible and adiabatic approach to thermodynamic equilibrium with global entropy conserved. The maximum entropy increase, (ΔS)max, is defined as the increase in global entropy achieved through a thermally irreversible transition to thermodynamic equilibrium without performing work. W max is identified as an approximately linear function of (ΔS)max. Large values of W max or (ΔS)max correspond to states of high thermodynamic disequilibrium. The seasonality and long-term historical variation of W max and (ΔS)max are computed, indicating highest disequilibrium in July, lowest disequilibrium in January with no statistically significant trend over the past 32 years. The analysis provides a perspective on the interconnections of temperature, energy and entropy for the atmosphere and allows for a quantitative investigation of the deviation of the atmosphere from thermodynamic equilibrium.

Demand for electricity in China is concentrated to a significant extent in its coastal provinces. Opportunities for production of electricity by on-shore wind facilities are greatest however in the north and west of the country. Using high resolution wind data derived from the GEOS-5 assimilation, this study shows that investments in off-shore wind facilities in these spatially separated regions (Bohai-Bay or BHB, Yangtze-River Delta or YRD, Pearl-River Delta or PRD) could make an important contribution to overall regional demand for electricity in coastal China. An optimization analysis indicates that hour-to-hour variability of outputs from a combined system can be minimized by investing 24% of the power capacity in BHB, 30% in YRD and 47% in PRD. The analysis suggests that about 28% of the overall off-shore wind potential could be deployed as base load power replacing coal-fired system with benefits not only in terms of reductions in CO2 emissions but also in terms of improvements in regional air quality. The interconnection of off-shore wind resources contemplated here could be facilitated by China’s 12th-five-year plan to strengthen inter-connections between regional electric-power grids.

In the 21st Conference of the Parties held in Paris in December 2015, China pledged to peak its carbon emissions and increase non-fossil energy to 20% by 2030 or earlier. Expanding renewable capacity, especially wind power, is a central strategy to achieve these climate goals. Despite greater capacity for wind installation in China compared to the US (114.7 vs. 65.9 GW), less wind electricity is generated in China (153.4 vs. 181.8 TWh). Here, we quantify the relative importance of the key factors accounting for the unsatisfactory performance of Chinese wind farms. Different from qualitative studies, we find that the difference in wind resources explains only a small fraction of the current US-China difference in wind power output (-17.9% in 2012); the curtailment of wind power, differences in turbine quality and delayed connection to the grid are identified as the three primary factors (respectively -49.3%, -50.2%, and -50.3% in 2012). Improvements in both technology choices and the policy environment are critical in addressing these challenges.

Wind offers an important alternative to coal as a source of energy for generation of electricity in China with the potential for substantial savings in carbon dioxide emissions. Wind fields derived from assimilated meteorological data are used to assess the potential for wind-generated electricity in China subject to the existing government-approved bidding process for new wind farms. Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kilowatt-hour for delivery of electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, it is concluded that wind could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption. Electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.