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Lee, Henry

Expanding estimates of North America’s supply of accessible shale gas, and more recently, shale oil, have been trumpeted in many circles as the most significant energy resource development since the oil boom in Texas in the late 1920s. How large are these resources? What challenges will need to be overcome if their potential is to be realized? How will they impact U.S. energy policy? To address these questions, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and two of its programs, the Environment and Natural Resources Program and the Geopolitics of Energy Project, convened a group of experts from business, government, and academia on May 1, 2012, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The following report summarizes the major issues discussed at this workshop. Since the discussions were off-the-record, no comments are attributed to any individual. Rather, this report attempts to summarize the arguments on all sides of the issues. The policy implications of significant additional supplies of domestic oil and gas to the United States are far ranging. Due to time constraints, many important issues were not covered in the depth that they deserved. Examples would include the impact of additional oil and gas supplies on existing U.S. efforts to reduce carbon emissions and its historical commitment to support other fuels, such as coal and nuclear power, or newer options, such as wind and solar energy. Further, as one participant pointed out, officials from industry are constrained under U.S. antitrust laws from sharing proprietary information.

The goals and concerns surrounding the debate over government policies related to the greater use and production of biofuels were addressed in an executive session convened by the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and the Venice International University on May 19th and 20th, 2008. The session attracted more than 25 of the world's leading experts from the fields of policy, science, and business to San Servolo Island for an intensive two day session (see Appendix A for a list of the participants). The discussions were off-the-record, with each participant present in his or her own capacity, rather than representing an organization. The session was one in a series on Grand Challenges of the Sustainability Transition organized by the Sustainability Science Program at Harvard University with the generous support of the Italian Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea. This particular session was held as part of the Ministry’s ongoing work with the Global Bioenergy Program established at the G8 Gleneagles Summit in 2005.

This summary report of the session is our synthesis of the main points and arguments that emerged from the discussions. It does not represent a consensus document, since no effort was made at the Session to arrive at a single consensus view. Rather, we report here on what we heard to be the major themes discussed at the session. Any errors or misrepresentations remain solely our responsibility.

Electric vehicles (EVs) have advanced significantly this decade, owing in part to decreasing battery costs. Yet EVs remain more costly than gasoline fueled vehicles over their useful life. This paper analyzes the additional advances that will be needed, if electric vehicles are to significantly penetrate the passenger vehicle fleet.

This paper focuses on liquid biofuels, especially corn-based ethanol, and the energy-water nexus. It examines the implications of potential land area expansion for increased biofuel production and on water supply availability. Given the potential expansion of the use of irrigation in crop production for biofuels, the associated water footprint can be challenging in some areas, depending on the assumptions and trends considered in the projections. On average, biofuels are among the most water-intensive energy products. Producing a gallon of conventional gasoline requires 3 to 7 gallons of water, whereas a gallon of corn ethanol requires from 11 gallons up to 160 gallons of water in extreme situations. Thus, these impacts vary according to the production system and region.

Carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) represents a class of technologies that directly capture carbon dioxide, either before or after combustion, and then either permanently store it in underground deposits or recycle it for further use.

As of now, CCUS has been deployed only in isolated pilot projects; most of which sell the resultant stream of carbon dioxide to oil producers as a tool to increase production in older wells. This market is both geographically and economically limited, particularly if oil prices remain low.

However, growing concern around climate change has ignited recent interest in CCUS technologies and a series of studies on its global market potential. A 2017 International Energy Agency report suggests that to meet the 2-degree-Celsius target, CCUS must account for at least 20% of the reduction in annual global emissions by 2060. In the United States, Congress has approved generous tax credits for CCUS investments, generating new interest from investors. The number of CCUS projects is increasing in many countries, from the U.S. and Canada to China and Norway.

This policy brief poses the following questions. First, what is the value of CCUS technologies from the public perspective, and how might that change over time? Second, how can governments most effectively pursue that value?

The fast growing Gram-negative bacterium Vibrio natriegens is an attractive microbial system for molecular biology and biotechnology due to its remarkable short generation time1,2 and metabolic prowess3,4. However, efforts to uncover and utilize the mechanisms underlying its rapid growth are hampered by the scarcity of functional genomic data. Here, we develop a pooled genome-wide CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) screen to identify a minimal set of genes required for rapid wild-type growth. Targeting 4,565 (99.7%) of predicted protein-coding genes, our screen uncovered core genes composed of putative essentials and growth-supporting genes which are enriched for respiratory pathways. We found 96% of core genes to be located on the larger chromosome 1, with growth-neutral duplicates of core gene located primarily on chromosome 2. Our screen also refines metabolic pathway annotations by distinguishing functional biosynthetic enzymes from those predicted based on comparative genomics. Taken together, this work provides a broadly applicable platform for high-throughput functional genomics to accelerate biological studies and engineering of V. natriegens.

In the last decade, many states set ambitious goals to decarbonize their energy portfolios. Seven states along the Atlantic coast are pursuing 100% clean electricity targets, while others have adopted stringent emissions reduction targets.1 Realizing these goals requires scaling wind, solar, and other renewable resource electricity generation at rates three to four times recent levels. If wind is to play a significant role in decarbonizing the electricity sector in the densely populated northeast section of the United States, a substantial proportion of the investment must occur offshore, as onshore wind speeds and available land area are limited. Some states have taken an additional step by establishing specific offshore wind targets. For example, New York's 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act contains a goal of 9,000 MW of offshore wind by 2035.2 This policy brief examines the economic and technical feasibility of substantial wind generation development along the Eastern Seaboard.

Summary report from a joint ENRP/Sustainablity Science Program workshop convening experts from academia, international institutions, government, and the private sector to explore possible implications of emerging global biofuels markets for economic development and international trade.

Partnerships are inherently challenging. They require two or more partners to share common goals and to work together over the lifetime of a project. This chapter investigates the durability of partnership arrangements and their adaptability as a key condition for partnership effectiveness and long-term sustainability. It summarizes the responses to this survey and present three case studies examining in greater detail the varying level of adaptability of the three partnerships, the different dynamics of such adaptability and how the partnerships' ability to adapt impacted their effectiveness. The chapter presents a brief history of the Roy Award program and discusses the methodology. It briefly discusses the results of the survey of the 37 partnerships before introducing the three case studies – the Noel Kempff Climate Action Project, Mexico City Metrobús, and Alianza Shire. The chapter provides a comparative discussion of how adaptability influences pathways to effectiveness across the three cases and presents the conclusions.

On June 7, 2018, the Harvard Kennedy School’s Environment and Natural Resources Program and the Center for Science, Technology, and Education Policy at Tsinghua University held the fifth annual Tsinghua-Harvard Workshop on Low-Carbon Development and Public Policy. This event brought together leading experts on climate and energy from academic, business, and government communities in both the United States and China. Previous workshops dealt with technology innovation, climate, market mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions, and local low-carbon initiatives. This year’s workshop focused on electricity systems and renewable energy penetration.

The workshop was divided into three sessions: the first focused on challenges confronting the electricity system in both China and the United States; the second discussed alternative policies to promote and invest in renewable power options; and the last session focused on opportunities and challenges for electric vehicles.

This report is a summary of the major points covered during the workshop. It strives to capture the underlying arguments made by all the participants, including areas in which there was disagreement.

To combat the threat of economic and social disruptions due to climate change, the global community must commit to a long-term goal of deep decarbonization, defined as reducing global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to zero or even negative. Ambient CO2 concentrations have been increasing, reaching a monthly mean of 410ppm in 2017 (based on observations at Mauna Loa Observatory). In the past few years, most places in the world have also experienced higher annual average temperatures. In addition, changes in the climate system have already resulted in disruptions, including more severe heat waves, tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, forest fires, and crop damage. Even greater negative impacts are projected in the future. Since CO2 can remain in the atmosphere for centuries, it is not enough to simply slow down the growth of emissions. In the long run, deep decarbonization will be necessary.

A current challenge is to lay the foundations for deep decarbonization, even if energy technologies (including pricing) are not yet up to the task. Climate change is a long-term problem. Urgent action is necessary, but because of the scale of the problem and the time needed to develop new energy systems, the challenge will persist for many decades. Climate and energy policies, today, should be judged not only by how they relate to immediate goals of emissions reduction, but also by how they contribute to providing options for decarbonization pathways in the future.

China and the United States are in position to promote energy technology innovation and tackle climate change. As the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, both countries have the opportunity to assume leadership positions. The landmark Xi-Obama climate agreement announced in 2014 outlined a unique collaboration between these two countries. This bilateral agreement also changed the character of global climate governance, which contributed to the success of the Paris Agreement.

China has made substantial efforts to reduce coal consumption and to increase non-fossil energy, and is currently on track to meet its climate pledges. While coal consumption reached 2.81 billion tce in 2013, it fell to 2.71 billion tce in 2017. The annual growth rate of non-fossil energy supply was 11.2% in 2012-2017. During the 13th Five Year Plan period (2016- 2020), the annual average GDP growth rate is expected to be around 6.5%, while the growth rate for energy consumption and CO2 emissions are anticipated to be only 2% and 1%, respectively. By 2020, the CO2 intensity (the ratio of CO2 emissions to GDP) is expected to decrease by more than 50% compared to 2005 level. It is therefore very likely that China will peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve the targets pledged in the Paris Agreement to increase the share of non-fossil energy to 20% of primary energy.

In the United States, while the Trump Administration decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, efforts have been made by states, cities, business leaders, and universities to continue the support for climate action. The Trump Administration announced its decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in 2017, and has initiated a process to reverse many of the climate policies implemented by the Obama Administration, including the Clean Power Plan. These actions have damaged the moral authority of U.S. leadership in tackling climate change, and may result in delayed action and reduced funding for mitigation and adaptation efforts. However, about 70% of Americans believe that climate change is happening, and the percentage is even higher among young people. More than 2,800 leaders from cities, states, universities, and companies have signed the “We are Still In” declaration to stand by the Paris Agreement.

Given the present-day situation, two lines of cooperation between Chinese and U.S. scholars are especially valuable. The first is to work with each other to promote climate action from all entities, rather than be limited to government negotiations. The bottom-up action from states, cities, counties, universities, businesses, and investors provides opportunities for new forms of partnership between a wide range of actors to pursue ambitious climate goals. Second, organizations in both countries can partner with each other to flesh out and evaluate policies for innovation, mitigation, and adaptation, so that when the opportunities present themselves, actions can be taken.