Person:

Losina, Elena

Background: Model-based analyses, conducted within a decision analytic framework, provide a systematic way to combine information about the natural history of disease and effectiveness of clinical management strategies with demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the population. Among the challenges with disease-specific modeling include the need to identify influential assumptions and to assess the face validity and internal consistency of the model. Methods and Findings: We describe a series of exercises involved in adapting a computer-based simulation model of HIV disease to the Women’s Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) cohort and assess model performance as we re-parameterized the model to address policy questions in the U.S. relevant to HIV-infected women using data from the WIHS. Empiric calibration targets included 24-month survival curves stratified by treatment status and CD4 cell count. The most influential assumptions in untreated women included chronic HIV-associated mortality following an opportunistic infection, and in treated women, the ‘clinical effectiveness’ of HAART and the ability of HAART to prevent HIV complications independent of virologic suppression. Good-fitting parameter sets required reductions in the clinical effectiveness of 1st and 2nd line HAART and improvements in 3rd and 4th line regimens. Projected rates of treatment regimen switching using the calibrated cohortspecific model closely approximated independent analyses published using data from the WIHS. Conclusions: The model demonstrated good internal consistency and face validity, and supported cohort heterogeneities that have been reported in the literature. Iterative assessment of model performance can provide information about the relative influence of uncertain assumptions and provide insight into heterogeneities within and between cohorts. Description of calibration exercises can enhance the transparency of disease-specific models.

Background: Indian guidelines recommend routine referral for HIV testing of all tuberculosis (TB) patients in the nine states with the highest HIV prevalence, and selective referral for testing elsewhere. We assessed the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative HIV testing referral strategies among TB patients in India. Methods and Findings: We utilized a computer model of HIV and TB disease to project outcomes for patients with active TB in India. We compared life expectancy, cost, and cost-effectiveness for three HIV testing referral strategies: 1) selective referral for HIV testing of those with increased HIV risk, 2) routine referral of patients in the nine highest HIV prevalence states with selective referral elsewhere (current standard), and 3) routine referral of all patients for HIV testing. TB-related data were from the World Health Organization. HIV prevalence among TB patients was 9.0% in the highest prevalence states, 2.9% in the other states, and 4.9% overall. The selective referral strategy, beginning from age 33.50 years, had a projected discounted life expectancy of 16.88 years and a mean lifetime HIV/TB treatment cost of US$100. The current standard increased mean life expectancy to 16.90 years with additional per-person cost of US$10; the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$650/year of life saved (YLS) compared to selective referral. Routine referral of all patients for HIV testing increased life expectancy to 16.91 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$730/YLS compared to the current standard. For HIV-infected patients cured of TB, receiving antiretroviral therapy increased survival from 4.71 to 13.87 years. Results were most sensitive to the HIV prevalence and the cost of second-line antiretroviral therapy. Conclusions: Referral of all patients with active TB in India for HIV testing will be both effective and cost-effective. While effective implementation of this strategy would require investment, routine, voluntary HIV testing of TB patients in India should be recommended.

Background: In France, roughly 40,000 HIV-infected persons are unaware of their HIV infection. Although previous studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of routine HIV screening in the United States, differences in both the epidemiology of infection and HIV testing behaviors warrant a setting-specific analysis for France. Methods/Principal Findings: We estimated the life expectancy (LE), cost and cost-effectiveness of alternative HIV screening strategies in the French general population and high-risk sub-populations using a computer model of HIV detection and treatment, coupled with French national clinical and economic data. We compared risk-factor-based HIV testing (“current practice”) to universal routine, voluntary HIV screening in adults aged 18–69. Screening frequencies ranged from once to annually. Input data included mean age (42 years), undiagnosed HIV prevalence (0.10%), annual HIV incidence (0.01%), test acceptance (79%), linkage to care (75%) and cost/test (€43). We performed sensitivity analyses on HIV prevalence and incidence, cost estimates, and the transmission benefits of ART. “Current practice” produced LEs of 242.82 quality-adjusted life months (QALM) among HIV-infected persons and 268.77 QALM in the general population. Adding a one-time HIV screen increased LE by 0.01 QALM in the general population and increased costs by €50/person, for a cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of €57,400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). More frequent screening in the general population increased survival, costs and CERs. Among injection drug users (prevalence 6.17%; incidence 0.17%/year) and in French Guyana (prevalence 0.41%; incidence 0.35%/year), annual screening compared to every five years produced CERs of €51,200 and €46,500/QALY. Conclusions/Significance: One-time routine HIV screening in France improves survival compared to “current practice” and compares favorably to other screening interventions recommended in Western Europe. In higher-risk groups, more frequent screening is economically justifiable.

Background: Data from HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings show extensive rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) ranging from 5% to 40% within 6 mo of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Our objective was to project the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent LTFU from HIV care in West Africa. Methods and Findings: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International model to project the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of LTFU-prevention programs from a payer perspective. These programs include components such as eliminating ART co-payments, eliminating charges to patients for opportunistic infectionrelated drugs, improving personnel training, and providing meals and reimbursing for transportation for participants. The efficacies and costs of these interventions were extensively varied in sensitivity analyses. We used World Health Organization criteria of ,36 gross domestic product per capita (36 GDP per capita = US$2,823 for Coˆ te d’Ivoire) as a plausible threshold for ‘‘cost-effectiveness.’’ The main results are based on a reported 18% 1-y LTFU rate. With full retention in care, projected per-person discounted life expectancy starting from age 37 y was 144.7 mo (12.1 y). Survival losses from LTFU within 1 y of ART initiation ranged from 73.9 to 80.7 mo. The intervention costing US$22/person/year (e.g., eliminating ART co-payment) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 12%. An intervention costing US$77/person/year (inclusive of all the components described above) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 41%. Conclusions: Interventions that prevent LTFU in resource-limited settings would substantially improve survival and would be cost-effective by international criteria with efficacy of at least 12%–41%, depending on the cost of intervention, based on a reported 18% cumulative incidence of LTFU at 1 y after ART initiation. The commitment to start ART and treat HIV in these settings should include interventions to prevent LTFU.

Background: Many HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings are plagued by high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU). Most studies have not distinguished between those who briefly interrupt, but return to care, and those more chronically lost to follow-up. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 11,397 adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 71 Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference/Catholic Relief Services HIV treatment clinics between January 2004 and December 2008. We distinguished among patients with early death, within the first 7 months on ART; patients with interruptions in laboratory monitoring (ILM), defined as missing visits in the first 7 months on ART, but returning to care by 12 months; and those LTFU, defined as missing all follow-up visits in the first 12 months on ART. We used multilevel logistic regression models to determine patient and clinic-level characteristics associated with these outcomes. Results: In the first year on ART, 60% of patients remained in care, 30% missed laboratory visits, and 10% suffered early death. Of the 3,194 patients who missed laboratory visits, 40% had ILM, resuming care by 12 months. After 12 months on ART, patients with ILM had a 30% increase in detectable viremia compared to those who remained in care. Risk of LTFU decreased with increasing enrollment year, and was lowest for patients who enrolled in 2008 compared to 2004 [OR 0.49, 95%CI 0.39–0.62]. Conclusions: In a large community-based cohort in South Africa, nearly 30% of patients miss follow-up visits for CD4 monitoring in the first year after starting ART. Of those, 40% have ILM but return to clinic with worse virologic outcomes than those who remain in care. The risk of chronic LTFU decreased with enrollment year. As ART availability increases, interruptions in care may become more common, and should be accounted for in addressing program LTFU.

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) and describe the resistance patterns in patients commencing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in an HIV clinic in Durban, South Africa. Design Cross-sectional cohort study. Methods Consecutive HIV-infected adults (≥18y/o) initiating HIV care were enrolled from May 2007–May 2008, regardless of signs or symptoms of active TB. Prior TB history and current TB treatment status were self-reported. Subjects expectorated sputum for culture (MGIT liquid and 7H11 solid medium). Positive cultures were tested for susceptibility to first- and second-line anti-tuberculous drugs. The prevalence of drug-resistant TB, stratified by prior TB history and current TB treatment status, was assessed. Results: 1,035 subjects had complete culture results. Median CD4 count was 92/µl (IQR 42–150/µl). 267 subjects (26%) reported a prior history of TB and 210 (20%) were receiving TB treatment at enrollment; 191 (18%) subjects had positive sputum cultures, among whom the estimated prevalence of resistance to any antituberculous drug was 7.4% (95% CI 4.0–12.4). Among those with prior TB, the prevalence of resistance was 15.4% (95% CI 5.9–30.5) compared to 5.2% (95% CI 2.1–8.9) among those with no prior TB. 5.1% (95% CI 2.4–9.5) had rifampin or rifampin plus INH resistance. Conclusions: The prevalence of TB resistance to at least one drug was 7.4% among adults with positive TB cultures initiating ART in Durban, South Africa, with 5.1% having rifampin or rifampin plus INH resistance. Improved tools for diagnosing TB and drug resistance are urgently needed in areas of high HIV/TB prevalence.

Objectives: Although youth (12–24 years) in Sub-Saharan Africa have a high HIV risk, many have poor access to HIV testing services and are unaware of their status. Our objective was to evaluate the proportion of adolescents (12–17 years) and young adults (18–24 years) who underwent HIV testing and the prevalence among those tested in an urban adult outpatient clinic with a routine HIV testing program in Durban, South Africa. Design: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of adolescent and young adult outpatient records between February 2008 and December 2009. Methods: We determined the number of unique outpatient visitors, HIV tests, and positive rapid tests among those tested. Results: During the study period, 956 adolescents registered in the outpatient clinic, of which 527 (55%) were female. Among adolescents, 260/527 (49%, 95% CI 45–54%) females underwent HIV testing compared to 129/429 (30%, 95% CI 26–35%) males (p<0.01). The HIV prevalence among the 389 (41%, 95% CI 38–44%) adolescents who underwent testing was 16% (95% CI 13–20%) and did not vary by gender (p = 0.99). During this period, there were 2,351 young adult registrations, and of these 1,492 (63%) were female. The proportion consenting for HIV testing was similar among females 980/1,492 (66%, 95% CI 63–68%) and males 543/859 (63%, 95% CI 60–66%, p = 0.25). Among the 1,523 (65%, 95% CI 63–67%) young adults who underwent testing, the HIV prevalence was 22% (95% CI 19–24%) in females versus 14% in males (95% CI 11–17%, p<0.01). Conclusions: Although the HIV prevalence is high among youth participating in an adult outpatient clinic routine HIV program, the uptake of testing is low, especially among 12–17 year old males. There is an urgent need to offer targeted, age-appropriate routine HIV testing to youth presenting to outpatient clinics in epidemic settings.

Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is common, effective, and cost-effective. Innovative implants promising reduced long-term failure at increased cost are under continual development. We sought to define the implant cost and performance thresholds under which innovative TKA implants are cost-effective. Methods: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using a validated, published computer simulation model of knee osteoarthritis. Model inputs were derived using published literature, Medicare claims, and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. We compared projected TKA implant survival, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), lifetime costs, and cost-effectiveness (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios or ICERs) of standard versus innovative TKA implants. We assumed innovative implants offered 5–70% decreased long-term TKA failure rates at costs 20–400% increased above standard implants. We examined the impact of patient age, comorbidity, and potential increases in short-term failure on innovative implant cost-effectiveness. Results: Implants offering ≥50% decrease in long-term TKA failure at ≤50% increased cost offered ICERs <$100,000 regardless of age or baseline comorbidity. An implant offering a 20% decrease in long-term failure at 50% increased cost provided ICERs <$150,000 per QALY gained only among healthy 50–59-year-olds. Increasing short-term failure, consistent with recent device failures, reduced cost-effectiveness across all groups. Increasing the baseline likelihood of long-term TKA failure among younger, healthier and more active individuals further enhanced innovative implant cost-effectiveness among younger patients. Conclusions: Innovative implants must decrease actual TKA failure, not just radiographic wear, by 50–55% or more over standard implants to be broadly cost-effective. Comorbidity and remaining life span significantly affect innovative implant cost-effectiveness and should be considered in the development, approval and implementation of novel technologies, particularly in orthopedics. Model-based evaluations such as this offer valuable, unique insights for evaluating technological innovation in medical devices.

Background: Routine screening for HIV infection leads to early detection and treatment. We examined patient characteristics associated with repeated screening in a high prevalence country. Methods: We analyzed data from a cohort of 5,229 adults presenting for rapid HIV testing in the outpatient departments of 2 South African hospitals from November 2006 to August 2010. Patients were eligible if they were ≥18 years, reported no previous diagnosis with HIV infection, and not pregnant. Before testing, participants completed a questionnaire including gender, age, HIV testing history, health status, and knowledge about HIV and acquaintances with HIV. Enrollment HIV test results and CD4 counts were abstracted from the medical record. We present prevalence of HIV infection and median CD4 counts by HIV testing history (first-time vs. repeat). We estimated adjusted relative risks (ARR’s) for repeat testing by demographics, health status, and knowledge of HIV and others with HIV in a generalized linear model. Results: Of 4,877 participants with HIV test results available, 26% (N = 1258) were repeat testers. Repeat testers were less likely than first-time testers to be HIV-infected (34% vs. 54%, p<0.001). Median CD4 count was higher among repeat than first-time testers (201/uL vs. 147/uL, p<0.001). Among those HIV negative at enrollment (N = 2,499), repeat testing was more common among those with family or friends living with HIV (ARR 1.50, 95% CI: 1.33–1.68), women (ARR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11–1.40), and those self-reporting very good health (ARR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.12–1.45). Conclusions: In this high prevalence setting, repeat testing was common among those undergoing HIV screening, and was associated with female sex, lower prevalence of HIV infection, and higher CD4 counts at diagnosis.

Introduction: Leptin has been suspected to contribute to the development of osteoarthritis (OA). However, this hypothesis has not been tested in large-scale hand OA cohorts. Our study aimed to determine whether there is a cross-sectional relationship between serum leptin levels and hand OA in a population-based sample of US adults. Method: We used the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), a national cross-sectional population-based survey, to study the relationship between hand OA and serum leptin concentration. We applied previously established classification criteria for hand OA. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis were excluded. Potential confounders included sex, body mass index, the presence of polyarticular OA, diabetes, and total cholesterol. We estimated unadjusted mean leptin concentration by hand OA status and by all confounders. We further developed a linear regression model to assess mean leptin levels, adjusted for appropriate confounders. Results: Of 2,477 subjects in the NHANES III sample that had a hand examination and did not have rheumatoid arthritis, 1,056 (42.6%) had a leptin measurement and were included in the analysis. Subjects with and without leptin measurement had similar demographic characteristics. We did not find any significant differences in mean serum leptin levels in subjects with symptomatic hand OA (7.38 ng/ml in males (95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.31, 9.46) and 21.55 ng/ml in females (95% CI = 17.08, 26.02)), asymptomatic hand OA (6.69 ng/ml in males (95% CI = 5.19, 8.18) and 17.09 ng/ml in females (95% CI = 15.00, 19.18)), and no hand OA (8.22 ng/ml in males (95% CI = 7.47, 8.97) and 20.77 ng/ml in females (95% CI = 18.01, 23.53)) in the unadjusted analysis. In a multivariable linear regression model that included variables of hand OA status, age, race/ethnicity, and obesity status, we found no statistically significant association between serum leptin and hand OA status. Conclusions: In this cross-sectional study of a large representative US cohort, we did not find any evidence to support the hypothesis that serum leptin is associated with hand OA.