Person:

Mayrhofer, Thomas

Background: The factors that predict recovery of left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are not completely understood. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) of the LV has been reported among patients with AF, and we aimed to test whether the presence LGE was associated with subsequent recovery of LV systolic function among patients with AF and LV dysfunction. Methods and Results: From a registry of 720 consecutive patients undergoing a cardiac magnetic resonance study prior to pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), patients with LV systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction [EF] <50%) were identified. The primary outcome was recovery of LVEF defined as an EF >50%; a secondary outcome was a combined outcome of subsequent heart failure (HF), admission, and death. Of 720 patients, 172 (24%) had an LVEF of <50% prior to PVI. The mean LVEF pre‐PVI was 41±6% (median 43%, range 20% to 49%). Forty‐three patients (25%) had LGE (25 [58%] ischemic), and the extent of LGE was 7.5±4% (2% to 19%). During follow‐up (mean 42 months), 91 patients (53%) had recovery of LVEF, 68 (40%) had early recurrence of AF, 65 (38%) had late AF, 18 (5%) were admitted for HF, and 23 died (13%). Factors associated with nonrecovery of LVEF were older age, history of myocardial infarction, early AF recurrence, late AF recurrence, and LGE. In a multivariable model, the presence of LGE and any recurrence of AF had the strongest association with persistence of LV dysfunction. Additionally, all patients without recurrence of AF and LGE had normalization of LVEF, and recovery of LVEF was associated with reduced HF admissions and death. Conclusions: In patients with AF and LV dysfunction undergoing PVI, the absence of LGE and AF recurrence are predictors of LVEF recovery and LVEF recovery in AF with associated reduction in subsequent death and heart failure.

Abstract Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' ‘reflective equilibrium/considered judgment’. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable.

We study prudence and temperance (next to risk aversion) in social settings. Previous experimental studies have shown that these higher-order risk preferences affect the choices of individuals deciding privately on lotteries that only affect their own payoff. Yet, many risky and financially relevant decisions are made in the social settings of households or organizations. We elicit higher-order risk preferences of individuals and systematically vary how an individual’s decision is made (alone or while communicating with a partner) and who is affected by the decision (only the individual or the partner as well). In doing so, we can isolate the effects of other-regarding concerns and communication on choices. Our results reveal that the majority of choices are risk averse, prudent, and temperate across social settings. We also observe that individuals are influenced significantly by the preferences of a partner when they are able to communicate and choices are payoff-relevant for both of them. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10683-017-9541-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.