Person:

Meade, Brendan

Imaging the extent to which the rupture areas of great earthquakes coincide with regions of pre-seismic interplate coupling is central to understanding patterns of strain accumulation and release through the earthquake cycle. Both geodetic and seismic estimates of the coseismic rupture extent for the March 11, 2011 (M_W = 8.9–9.0) earthquake Tohoku-oki earthquake may be spatially correlated (0.26 ± 0.05 to 0.82 ± 0.05) with a region estimated to be partially to fully coupled in the interseismic period preceding the earthquake, though there is substantial variation in the estimated distribution and magnitude of coseismic slip. The ∼400 km-long region estimated to have slipped ≥4 m corresponds to an area of the subduction zone interface that was coupled at ≥30% of long-term plate convergence rate, with peak slip near a region coupled ≥80%. The northern termination of rupture is collocated with a region of relatively low (<20%) interseismic coupling near the epicenter of the 1994 (M_W = 7.6) Sanriku-oki earthquake, and near a region of potential long-term low coupling or ongoing slow slip. Slip on the subduction interface beneath the coastline (40–50 km depth) is best constrained by the land-based GPS data and least constrained on the shallowest portion of the plate interface due to the ∼230 km distance between geodetic observations and the Japan trench.

The spatial complexity of continental deformation in the greater Tibetan Plateau region can be defined as the extent to which relative motion of the Indian and Asian plates is partitioned between localized slip on major faults and distributed deformation. Potency rates provide a quantitative metric for determining the magnitudes of diffuse and on-fault crustal deformation, which are proportional to strain rates within crustal micro-plates and fault slip rates, respectively. We simultaneously estimate micro-plate rotation rates, interseismic elastic strain accumulation, fault slip rates on major structures, and strain rates within 24 tectonic micro-plates inferred from active fault maps in the greater Tibetan Plateau region using quasi-static block models constrained by interseismic surface velocities at 731 GPS sites and 9 Holocene–Late Quaternary geologic fault slip rates. The joint geodetic–geologic inversion indicates that geologic slip rates are kinematically consistent with differential micro-plate motions. Estimated left-lateral slip rates on the Altyn Tagh, west-central Kunlun, and Xianshuihe faults are relatively homogeneous along strike (~ 11.5, 10.5, and 11 mm/yr, respectively) while segmentation of the eastern Kunlun fault by the intersecting Elashan and Riyueshan faults results in a decreased slip rate, consistent with geologic observations. The fraction, ϕ, of total potency rate associated with intrablock strain, uncorrected for observational noise, ranges from 0.27 in the Himalayan Range block to 0.91 in the Aksai Chin block. Monte Carlo simulations are used to quantify the likelihood that internal deformation is statistically distinguishable from the uncertainties in geodetic velocities. These simulations indicate that internal block deformation is statistically significant only within the Himalayan Range Front (where internal deformation accounts for ϕID = 0.11 of block potency rate budget), west-central plateau (ϕID = 0.68), Ganzi-Yushu/Xianshuihe (0.58), Burma (0.09), Jiali (0.38), and Aksai Chin (0.68) blocks. In the other 18 tectonic micro-plates within the plateau region, estimated internal block potency is not currently distinguishable from the expected contribution of observational noise to residual velocities. Of the total potency budget within the Tibetan Plateau, 85% is taken up by slip on major faults, with the remaining 15% accommodated by internal processes at sub-block scale distinguishable from observational noise. The localization of the majority of plate boundary activity is also supported by the spatial distribution of modern and historical crustal earthquakes. Sixty-seven percent of the total moment released by earthquakes in the CMT catalog and 90% of historical moment since 1900 have been released within 25 km of the major faults included in the block model, representing only 12% of the characteristic half-block length scale of ~ 215 km. The localization of deformation inferred from geologic, geodetic, and seismic observations suggests that forces applied to tectonic micro-plates drive fault system activity at the India–Asia collision zone over decadal to Quaternary time scales.

Fifty percent of the relative motion between the Indian and Asian plates is accommodated by active convergence at the Himalayan Range Front (HRF). Earthquake cycle processes on shallowly dipping HRF thrust faults generate large earthquakes ((M_W \geq 7)) and contribute to the growth of HRF topography. Interseismic rock uplift rates reach a maximum north of the active Main Frontal Thrust and have been suggested to significantly influence the collocated convex bulge in HRF topography. Using geodetically constrained models of interseismic rock uplift rates and simple channel erosion rate laws, we show that convex channel profiles are predicted when interseismic deformation outpaces coseismic deformation. Applying this model to the observed elevation profiles of 20 HRF-spanning channels in Nepal yields a minimum mean residual elevation (72 m) if interseismic deformation has outpaced coseismic deformation by a factor of four. The long-term earthquake deficit required for the application of this model is consistent with some estimates of historical moment imbalance but requires temporally variable fault system activity. The spatial correlation between nominally interseismic rock uplift and the HRF topographic bulge may be explained by (1) a noncausal geometric coincidence, (2) geodetic observations of significant deformation not directly related to earthquake cycle processes, or (3) an unbalanced earthquake cycle at the HRF.

Geodetic observations of surface displacements during and following earthquakes such as the March 11, 2011 great Tohoku earthquake can be used to constrain the spatial extent of coseismic slip and postseismic afterslip, and characterize the spectrum of earthquake cycle behaviors. Slip models are often regularized by assuming that slip on the fault varies smoothly in space, which may result in the artificial smearing of fault slip beyond physical boundaries. Alternatively, it may be desirable to estimate a slip distribution that is spatially compact and varies sharply. Here we show that sparsity promoting state vector regularization methods can be used to recover slip distributions with sharp boundaries, representing an alternative end-member result to very smooth slip distributions. Using onshore GPS observations at 298 stations during and in the ∼2 weeks following the Tohoku earthquake, we estimate a band of coseismic slip between 30 and 50 km depth extending 500 km along strike with a maximum slip of 64 m, corresponding to a minimum magnitude estimate of (M_W = 8.8). Our estimate of afterslip is located almost exclusively down-dip of the coseismic rupture, with a transition between 40 and 50 km depth and an equivalent moment magnitude (M_W = 8.2). This depth may be interpreted as coincident with the transition from velocity strengthening to velocity weakening frictional behavior, consistent with the upper limit of cold subduction estimates of the thermal structure of the Japan trench.

The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) is sometimes considered unusual among continental faults for exhibiting significant aseismic creep during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle while also generating sufficient elastic strain to produce major earthquakes. Imaging the spatial variation in interseismic fault creep on the Hayward fault is complicated because of the interseismic strain accumulation associated with nearby faults in the SFBA, where the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra block is partitioned across closely spaced subparallel faults. To estimate spatially variable creep on the Hayward fault, we interpret geodetic observations with a three-dimensional kinematically consistent block model of the SFBA fault system. Resolution tests reveal that creep rate variations with a length scale of <15 km are poorly resolved below 7 km depth. In addition, creep at depth may be sensitive to assumptions about the kinematic consistency of fault slip rate models. Differential microplate motions result in a slip rate of 6.7 ± 0.8 mm/yr on the Hayward fault, and we image along-strike variations in slip deficit rate at ∼15 km length scales shallower than 7 km depth. Similar to previous studies, we identify a strongly coupled asperity with a slip deficit rate of up to 4 mm/yr on the central Hayward fault that is spatially correlated with the mapped surface trace of the 1868 (M_W = 6.9–7.0) Hayward earthquake and adjacent to gabbroic fault surfaces.

The India-Asia collision zone accommodates the relative motion between India and Eurasia through both shortening and pervasive strike-slip faulting. To gain a mechanical understanding of how fault slip rates are driven across the Tibetan plateau, we develop a two-dimensional, linear elastic, two-stage, deformable microplate model for the upper crust based on the behavior of an idealized earthquake cycle. We use this approach to develop a suite of simple India-Asia collision zone models, differing only in boundary conditions, to determine which combination of edge forces and displacements are consistent with both the slip rate measurements along major Tibetan faults as well as the geodetically observed extrusion of crustal material toward Southeast Asia. Model predictions for the Altyn Tagh (1–14 mm/yr), Kunlun (3–10 mm/yr), Karakorum (5–12 mm/yr), and Haiyuan (3–5 mm/yr) faults are in agreement with geologically and geodetically inferred slip rates. Further, models that accurately reproduce observed slip rate gradients along the Altyn Tagh and Kunlun faults feature two critical boundary conditions: (1) oblique compressive displacement along the Himalayan range front west of the Shillong plateau, and (2) forcing in Southeast Asia. Additionally, the ratio of internal-block potency rate to the total potency rate for each microplate ranges from 28% to 79%, suggesting a hybrid view of deformation in Tibet as simultaneously localized on major faults and distributed at length scales <500 km.

Geodetic observations of interseismic deformation across the Tibetan plateau contain information about both tectonic and earthquake cycle processes. Time-variations in surface velocities between large earthquakes are sensitive to the rheological structure of the subseismogenic crust, and, in particular, the viscosity of the middle and lower crust. Here we develop a semianalytic solution for time-dependent interseismic velocities resulting from viscoelastic stress relaxation in a localized midcrustal layer in response to forcing by a sequence of periodic earthquakes. Earthquake cycle models with a weak midcrustal layer exhibit substantially more near-fault preseismic strain localization than do classic two-layer models at short (<100 yr) Maxwell times. We apply both this three-layer model and the classic two-layer model to geodetic observations before and after the 1997 (M_W = 7.6) Manyi and 2001 (M_W = 7.8) Kokoxili strike-slip earthquakes in Tibet to estimate the viscosity of the crust below a 20 km thick seismogenic layer. For these events, interseismic stress relaxation in a weak ((viscosity \leq10^{18.5} Pa⋅s)) and thin (height ≤20 km) midcrustal layer explains observations of both preseismic near-fault strain localization and rapid (>50 mm/yr) postseismic velocities in the years following the coseismic ruptures. We suggest that earthquake cycle models with a localized midcrustal layer can simultaneously explain both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations with a single Maxwell viscosity, while the classic two-layer model requires a rheology with multiple relaxation time scales.

We interpret Global Positioning System measurements of interseismic deformation throughout the western Tien Shan in the context of a block model which accounts for important geologic features (faults) and physical processes (elastic strain accumulation.) Through this analysis we are able to quantify the amount of deformation localized on active structures. In the central part of the belt the Djuarnarik fault zone appears to be the most important thrust fault, accommodating nearly five millimeters per year of north-south shortening across it. Conversely, the most widely recognized strike slip fault in the region, the Talas Ferghana, is found to have very little of the previously estimated right lateral motion.

We model the geodetically observed secular velocity field in northwestern Turkey with a block model that accounts for recoverable elastic-strain accumulation. The block model allows us to estimate internally consistent fault slip rates and locking depths. The northern strand of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) carries approximately four times as much right-lateral motion (∼24 mm/yr) as does the southern strand. In the Marmara Sea region, the data show strain accumulation to be highly localized. We find that a straight fault geometry with a shallow locking depth of 6-7 km fits the observed Global Positioning System velocities better than does a stepped fault geometry that follows the northern and eastern edges of the sea. This shallow locking depth suggests that the moment release associated with an earthquake on these faults should be smaller, by a factor of 2.3, than previously inferred assuming a locking depth of 15 km.