Harvard Business School

We use arbitrage activity in equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets to characterize the frictions and constraints facing intermediaries. The average pairwise correlation between the 32 arbitrage spreads that we study is 22%. These low correlations are inconsistent with canonical intermediary asset pricing models. We show that at least two types of segmentation drive arbitrage dynamics. First, funding is segmented—certain trades rely on specific funding sources, making their arbitrage spreads sensitive to localized funding shocks. Second, balance sheets are segmented—intermediaries specialize in certain trades, so arbitrage spreads are sensitive to idiosyncratic balance sheet shocks.

We study the effects of immigration on natives’ marriage, fertility, and family formation across U.S. cities between 1910 and 1930. Using a shift-share design, we find that natives living in cities that received more immigrants were more likely to marry, have children, and leave the parental house earlier. Our evidence suggests that immigration increased native men’s employment, thereby raising the supply of native “marriageable men”. We consider alternative channels—such as changes in sex ratios, natives’ cultural reactions, and economic competition faced by native women—and conclude that none of them, alone, can explain our results.

Using novel data on 1,240 credit agreements, we investigate sources of contractual complexity in the leveraged loan market. While negative covenants are widespread, carve-out and deductible clauses that qualify them are as frequent. We propose simple and comprehensive measures of contractual weakness based on the usage of such clauses. The economic significance of the actions allowed by these clauses, and the market-wide price reaction that followed the 2017 J.Crew restructuring, a high-profile use of such contractual elements, support this interpretation. Leveraged buyouts, large transactions, and non-bank funding are conducive to weaker contractual terms for credit agreements.

In this paper, we examine how the development of voluntary sustainability standards has affected the nature of information covered in conference calls. Using industry-specific dictionaries of sustainability terms contained in the disclosure standards developed by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB), we find a significant increase in coverage of sustainability topics identified as relevant to investors in SASB standards, particularly for entities that had little or no coverage of sustainability issues historically. This trend begins around the time when SASB released a provisional disclosure standard for a given company’s industry and continues in the years after. We also find a stronger impact of SASB standards on conference call content for firms operating in industries with greater ex-ante uncertainty about which sustainability topics are more likely to be financially material. Overall, our paper provides timely evidence as jurisdictions around the world consider whether to support sustainability reporting in their capital markets and, if so, how.

The new lease standard (ASC 842) allows firms to keep variable leases off-balance-sheet, in part based on the assumption that future expenses are difficult to estimate reliably. We show that variable-lease expenses are both prevalent and substantial, exhibiting persistence and predictability comparable to operating-lease expenses, while showing limited sensitivity to revenue changes. These patterns are consistent with variable-lease payments being based on stable drivers. Following ASC 842 adoption, firms report lower minimum operating lease commitments and higher variable-lease expenses, suggesting a substitution from operating to variable leases. Neither equity betas nor credit ratings reflect potential variable-lease liabilities. Conservative estimates show that recognition of variable-lease liabilities would increase debt by 7.1% on average. Our findings provide evidence on the properties of variable leases and the potential implications of keeping them off-balance-sheet.

Drawing on surveys of small business owners and employees, we present three main findings about the evolution of remote work after the onset of COVID-19. First, uptake of remote work was abrupt and widespread in jobs suitable for telework according to the task-based measure from Dingel and Neiman (2020). The initial adoption lead to a persistent shift in work arrangements that both firms and workers forecast would continue into the future. Second, business leaders’ perceptions of how remote work affected productivity shifted over time. In early 2020, 70 percent of small business owners reported a productivity dip due to remote work. By contrast, the median business owner reported a positive productivity impact of remote work by 2021. Third, 21 percent of workers report being willing to accept a pay cut in excess of 10 percent if it allowed them to continue working from home, but the median worker in a teleworkable job would not tradeoff any compensation for the option of continued remote work. Taken together, our evidence points to perceived productivity gains and some workers’ preferences as reasons for the persistence of remote work in the years following the onset of COVID-19.

People influence each other when they interact to solve problems. Such social influence introduces both benefits (higher average solution quality due to exploitation of existing answers through social learning) and costs (lower maximum solution quality due to a reduction in individual exploration for novel answers) relative to independent problem solving. In contrast to prior work, which has focused on how the presence and network structure of social influence affect performance, here we investigate the effects of time. We show that when social influence is intermittent it provides the benefits of constant social influence without the costs. Human subjects solved the canonical traveling salesperson problem in groups of three, randomized into treatments with constant social influence, intermittent social influence, or no social influence. Groups in the intermittent social-influence treatment found the optimum solution frequently (like groups without influence) but had a high mean performance (like groups with constant influence); they learned from each other, while maintaining a high level of exploration. Solutions improved most on rounds with social influence after a period of separation. We also show that storing subjects’ best solutions so that they could be reloaded and possibly modified in subsequent rounds—a ubiquitous feature of personal productivity software—is similar to constant social influence: it increases mean performance but decreases exploration.

We study the connection between communication network structure and an organization’s collective adaptability to a shifting environment. Research has shown that network centralization—the degree to which communication flows disproportionately through one or more members of the organization rather than being more equally distributed—interferes with collective problem-solving by obstructing the integration of existing ideas, information, and solutions in the network. We hypothesize that the mechanisms responsible for that poor integration of ideas, information, and solutions would nevertheless prove beneficial for problems requiring adaptation to a shifting environment. We conducted a 1,620-subject randomized online laboratory experiment, testing the effect of seven network structures on problem-solving success. To simulate a shifting environment, we designed a murder mystery task and manipulated when each piece of information could be found: early information encouraged an inferior consensus, requiring a collective shift of solution after more information emerged. We find that when the communication network within an organization is more centralized, it achieves the benefits of connectivity (spread of novel better solutions) without the costs (getting stuck on an existing inferior solution). We also find, however, that these benefits of centralization only materialize in networks with two-way flow of information and not when information only flows from the center of the network outward (as can occur in hierarchical structures or digitally mediated communication). We draw on these findings to reconceptualize theory on the impact of centralization—and how it affects conformity pressure (lock-in) and awareness of diverse ideas (learning)—on collective problem-solving that demands adaptation.

Framing is critical for leaders who must build support for strategic renewal. While research has concentrated on renewal that replaces one set of capabilities with another, we explore a distinctive challenge: how leaders persuade stakeholders to endorse the reprioritization of resources toward a capability set that must coexist with an existing one. Moreover, while research has focused on how leaders build employee support for renewal, we examine how to persuade those overseeing resource allocation. Our study analyzes Director Robert Mueller's 12-year effort at the FBI—after the 9/11 terrorist attacks—to build up counterterrorism capabilities while maintaining existing law enforcement capabilities. We offer a novel distinction between outcome frames and process frames and discuss how each frame, sequenced properly, is relevant to strategic renewal.

We investigate how a firm’s positioning relative to category exemplars shapes security analysts’ evaluations. Using a two-stage model of evaluation (initial screening and subsequent assessment), we propose that exemplar similarity enhances a firm’s recognizability and legitimacy, increasing the likelihood that it passes the initial screening stage and attracts analyst coverage. However, exemplar similarity may also prompt unfavorable comparisons with exemplar firms, leading to lower analyst recommendations in the assessment stage. We further argue that category coherence, distinctiveness, and exemplar typicality influence the impact of exemplar similarity on firm evaluation. Leveraging natural language processing (NLP) techniques to analyze a sample of 7,603 U.S. public firms from 1997 to 2022, we find robust support for our predictions. By highlighting the intricate role of strategic positioning vis-à-vis category exemplars in shaping audience evaluations, our findings have important implications for research on positioning relative to category exemplars, category viability, optimal distinctiveness, and security analysts.